Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
