A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
